Politics in Property Destruction - Rick Perry vs Reality

One of the most financially damaging disasters in the Southern United States has been the streak of wildfires sweeping across Texas.  Doing much more than demonstrating developed countries' tendency to not expect natural disasters to continue after periods of development, these fires have pressed a political issue with a presidential candidate.  Rick Perry, normally a staunch defender of the idea that government spending is superfluous, has had to reverse his position for the sake of his constituents.  The fires, which have raged over 3.6 million acres of land in the state, have claimed an unprecedented number of homes and businesses. 

One concern that may seem depressingly unlikely is nevertheless true: military construction equipment, the one bit of government-funded property that Rick Perry supports, has in some cases gone unused due to security regulations.  Hopefully the debate between conservatives and liberals can be set aside in future, at least for the duration of the town being on fire.

((Article at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2034549/Texas-wildfires-Death-toll-rises-4-fires-rage-turning-hundreds-homes-rubble-ash.html))

The Tuvalu Drought: A Microcosm of Things to Come

As climate change looms, there are few better vanguard countries to keep an eye on than Tuvalu.  A series of islands in the Pacific, the atoll nation's highest point is 5m above sea level, and is the perfect testing ground for issues relating to the interaction between human development and environmental change.  It is extremely susceptible to not only rising tides, but also fluctuations in weather patterns.  This year, it has been devastated by a drought so severe as to beg the question - is it feasible to continue to live there?  Regardless of the answer, many residents below a certain income level are trapped.  Emigration is high, and many families would do so if they could.  However, there are also members of another camp, including the chairman of the national disaster committee.  Disturbingly, he takes a c'est-la-vie position when asked about the prospects of living in a potentially dying country. 

In the light of recent retractions and setbacks in the battle against climate change, the attitudes in Tuvalu raise questions as to how first-world countries will deal with these same issues when their time comes.  If it is to be taken as an example, we may need to ensure that our leaders are not simply waiting for the inevitable by voting with the highest priority given to candidates' stances on climate change.

((Article at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/17/tuvalu-drought-climate-change

Image from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/648373.stm))

New Orleans and Tropical Storm Lee - Good News, Finally

Too often as of late have relief efforts failed, warning systems been too late, and evacuation orders been ignored.  This was not the case with Tropical Storm Lee, with which Obama's state of emergency order saw the evacuation of over a hundred thousand individuals in the United States.  At the time of one of the articles' writing, over 100,000 people had been evacuated with 14 casualties.  Considering the developmental level of the United States, this displacement will have much less of an impact on the population than, say, many times more than that being displaced due to conflicts in Africa.  All in all, the response to Lee can be counted as a success.

((Article at: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Lee.html))

Retreating Artic Ice Releases Methane

Over the last twenty years, the survey area in the Arctic Ocean has never seen anything quite like this: 20 times the average amount of carbon dioxide has been bubbling to the surface. While studying the seabed, they discovered “torch-like structures”, possibly numbering in the thousands. In theory, there could be hundreds of millions of tones of methane under the Arctic permafrost, which is shrinking quickly, and as it does so, this could release the gas beneath the surface, and damage the atmosphere.

((Article at: http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/shock-as-retreat-of-arctic-sea-ice-releases-deadly-greenhouse-gas-6276134.html))

UK Heat Wave

At a time when starvation runs rampant in Africa, an anomalous meteorological event this autumn in the UK was met with a different reaction.  The development paradigm is clearly at work in the consequences of a potentially drought-causing heat wave were the UK to have Africa's infrastructure or political climate.  To quote the article, "a lamb has been born early and a field of about 100 sunflowers have blossomed near Bamburgh castle".  This can either be taken as a mark of proper preparedness on the part of the UK, or as indicative of a severe disproportion in global economic distribution.

((Article at: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-15107937))

Grimsvotn Eruption

In a case of internationally joined efforts to reduce risk in line with the behavioral paradigm, flights were shut down in May this year over a 120-square mile area in Iceland.  This was a necessary step, as much of that area was obscured by a pillar of ash and debris kicked up by the Grimsvotn eruption.  370 flights were canceled, and rightfully so.

((Article at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/21/grimsvotn-eruption-2011-iceland-volcano_n_865150.html#s282574&title=Iceland_Volcano_Eruption))

Government Regulations: There For a Reason

Despite building codes and disaster prevention plans, a Malaysian orphanage saw a smaller scale tragedy this year.  Over a dozen children and their guardian were outside near a tent when a landslide occurred, burying the lot of them.  Recovery efforts took most of a day, and were too late to save the lives of the victims.  Speaking from the behavioural paradigm, this case may be attributed to both terrible timing and a risky decision made in face of recent torrential rains.

((Article at: http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-05-21/news/29588538_1_rescuers-search-landslide-orphanage

Image from:http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/43119471/ns/today-today_news/t/landslides-kill-malaysian-orphanage/))

Chile Volcano Eruption

Sometimes, pictures are more effective than words at conveying the scope of a natural disaster.  Facts and figures can describe the damages caused by eruptions such as that of Puyuhue in Chile this year, but a chart often fails to bring to mind words such as "apocalyptic", "fearsome", or "divine wrath".  I'll let this picture speak for itself.

((Article from: http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/06/chiles-puyehue-volcano-erupts/100081/))

Hurricane Preparation: Panic at its Worst

When facing an imminent crisis, judging from events that have taken place in the UK due to hurricane Irene, it is definitely better know.  Matt Seaton and Matt Wells of the Guardian took it upon themselves to document the chaos that precluded the event, as well as the aftermath.  Most of the toll was taken on people who flaunted the dangers, and in several areas of the US such as North Carolina, shelters provided by government organizations went woefully underused.  Though supermarkets along the Eastern seaboard managed to get rid of their overstocks, the well-researched contingency plans seem to have fallen on deaf ears.  There was even one case in Florida of a surfer attempting to ride the waves caused by the storm being killed - Darwinism, as well as the behavioural paradigm, in action.

((Article from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/aug/27/hurricane-irene-new-york-live))

Lack of Opportunity in Eastern Africa

Nowhere else is the development paradigm more discussed than in Africa, the highest concentration of underdeveloped countries in the world.  In a continent plagued by third world problems, a recent example can be found in the consequences of droughts on an already difficult situation.  Misplaced and separated families have difficulties enough, with a third of all children suffering from acute malnourishment.  Add to that a less resilient infrastructure due to political instability and conflict, and the problem becomes clear.  When a drought like the one that has swept the area in late spring/early summer this year hits, there is not enough of a safety net to stop the increase in starvation.

Perhaps the most discouraging aspect of this crisis is the first group to fall: children.  Estimates in Somalia are that one in ten children is at a high risk of dying of starvation, and this will only get worse if the estimated 500,000 children at risk of being displaced are forced to relocate.

((Article from: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1025162--east-africa-drought-the-most-severe-humanitarian-emergency-in-the-world

Image from: http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/papers/desertification-africa.html))

Inevitable, but Unfortunate - Property Destruction in Thailand

Improper building techniques in areas susceptible to flooding are a recipe for disaster, but sometimes it is unavoidable.  This was the case earlier this year in Thailand, known around the world for its architectural beauty.  Unfortunately, many of the ancient sites frequented by tourists as well as religious pilgrims were built long before recent innovations in flood protection.  An area that had been spared for centuries was hit by flooding, the capital of Ayatthuya.  A staggering amount of cultural damage has been done, with over 200 monasteries and other historic buildings now steeping like so much tea in the waters that have relented for so long.

((Article at: http://www.weather.com/life/safety/flood/article/thailand-flooding_2011-10-17

Image from: http://www.mnn.com/green-tech/gadgets-electronics/photos/eco-photos-of-the-week-oct-17-23/thailand-flooding))

Himalyan Quake

Even in the light of recent increases in the extremity of weather, an earthquake's causes can hardly be blamed on human influences.  However, the consequences of a quake can illustrate disaster preparedness, and (under the development paradigm) the reaction times of relief personnel.  Deaths are estimated to have passed 100, and the reason for the lack of specificity in this estimate is the damage done to already-minimal access to rural areas.  Helicopters were prioritized to save trapped individuals and verify safety, so contact with outlying towns to determine any deaths was impossible by the time the article was written.

Ironically enough, in Sikkim efforts to improve local infrastructure may have inadvertently led to a large proportion of the deaths.  17 workers in the process of constructing a hydroelectric dam were killed in the resulting landslides.

((Article at: http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Death-Toll-in-Himalayan-Quake-Reaches-100-130265183.html

Image from: http://frontierindia.net/news/sikkim-earthquake-toll-rises-to-25-killed-as-help-battles-adverse-weather/ ))

Asteroid Within Spitting Distance

Today, it is expected that an asteroid bigger than an aircraft carrier will pass between earth and the moon, closer than any other asteroid in the last 35 years. Fortunately, it will not be hitting our planet.

Supposedly the last time it came this close to Earth was approximately 200 years ago. At 6:28 PM EST, it will be within 202,000 miles of earth – 38,000 miles closer than the moon.

In the event the asteroid were not planning to pass by Earth, the predicted crater it would create on the surface of our planet would be 1,700 feet deep, resulting in magnitude 7 earthquake-like shaking, and the possibility of 70 foot tsunami waves.

This particular asteroid is considered to contain carbon-based materials, which in theory, are of the same type that could have brought the necessary components for life to exist to earth. It was possible that asteroids of this type could contain frozen water, and thus might be considered a viable source for the liquid and possible fueling stations for future space explorers.

To that point, the asteroid may be considered a future destination by NASA in the coming decades, hence why the shuttle program was shut down over the summer, so as to save up money in hopes of an eventual trip to Mars.

Fortunately, this has been a good chance for scientists to gain information that may be useful in the event of an asteroid that might actually strike the Earth. The next large asteroid to come close to Earth, Apophis, will be 885 feet across, and appear on April, 13 2029, but not strike, though in theory there is a remote chance it might upon it’s return April 13, 2036. Hopefully, by then, scientists will be able to use the data they’ve gathered from events like this to come up with a proper plan.

In my opinion, this particular event plays to the Complexity paradigm best, since it has elements of the Engineering paradigm and just a dab of the Behavioral paradigm, in the essence that it would help with predictions of what potential consequences could be for such an event, and also because it would help to come up with a short term warning system, an even possibly to develop a plan of what to do after an event.

I think the better that the basic actions of something like an asteroid are understood in advance, the better prepared people will be in the future. In theory, knowing things like how an asteroid is projected to move, what its rotation might be, what it’s made of, and similar factors all play into what might be predicted to happen if an asteroid were to strike. These factors and things like them might in fact allow people to judge each individual event more accurately.

This is an image of the Asteroid passing by today, designated 2005 YU55.

 ((Article from http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/quater-mile-wide-asteroid-coming-close-to-earth_2011-11-05))

Redefining Catch and Release

((For Lab Assignment 4))

In Fort Worth, Texas,  biologists have been using nets to try and catch fish. From the Brazos River, they have been collecting small eye shiners and sharpnose shiners - fish located only there, now candidates to be listed as endangered and threatened, due to the massive drought raging across the state. As their natural habitat is smack dab in the middle of it, the waters these fish need to survive have been steadily dissipating. Thanks to that, these two types of fish just don't have the 100 miles of river they need to reproduce, and as a major food source for game fish, namely catfish and largemouth bass, their ecosystem needs them. While the drought lasts, the aquatic relocate-es will be moved to a state fish hatchery near Possum Kingdom Lake, the plan being to return them once the drought loosens it's grip. Several additional species are also prime candidates for the white knight - or, white net - rescue as well, if the water levels of the river continue to drop.

I think in this case, this event applies to the engineering paradigm, since people are using the scientific aspect of things in order to preserve these fish species by moving them to an alternative area already set aside in order to keep them from extinction, but this does also tie in with the behavioral and development paradigms all at the same time, since the behavior of the fish, namely the ability to reproduce and remain a food source for game fish, has been compromised by the drought. That fact has a direct effect on the development paradigm, because in the long term, the extinction of two little species of shiners could theoretically cause a cataclysmic chain reaction in the ecosystem - if those two fish die out, larger game fish could die out, which could cause larger animals which feed on them to die out, and so forth. Yes, it sounds totally paranoid to say that one less species on earth, or two in this case, could be the big-bad that ends the world, but...Well, that is kind of why we haven't bug-bombed the entire midwest to get rid of the mosquitoes: Chain reactions are hard to predict.

Speaking from a complexity angle, it may not -seem- like a big deal, just two types of fish, and not even ones big enough to eat...But theoretically in the long run, two little fish could make a big difference.





((Video taken from http://online.wsj.com/video/texas-drought-threatens-fish/BDC2C0CA-7A6D-41B9-92A6-0A8D091326C5.html

Article found at: http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/rescue-rare-fish-from-drought_2011-09-16))

Estimates to End the Drought

True, Texas hasn't been completely devoid of rain lately; in fact, in some areas, a few days worth of rain added up to more than the state had seen in months. However, that doesn't mean it's been getting nearly enough. With 88% of the state in a severe drought (a record breaking one actually,) some areas of Texas may need as much as 24 to 28 inches of rain, per month, for the next six months to put a proper end to the drought. At this point, many believe that the best hope for the end of the dry-spell would be a tropical storm to come inland, like Lee did. Shy of that, it's a little hard to fathom just what could offer the Lone-Star State any salvation.

Of course, with three events currently in the tropics to keep an eye on (Tropical Storm Philippe, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia, and Hurricane Hillary) maybe not all is lost for the possibility of  an end in sight.

South-Central States Battling Drought

The south-central states have been suffering a massive drought. Record  summer temperatures and little rain have put three states, being Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma, into such a position that they have lost more than 8 billion dollars through combinations of crop and livestock losses.  In Texas alone, preliminary estimates show the state has lost $5.2 billion dollars, and as shown on the drought map, the vast majority of the state is covered in dark red shading: an indicator of sever and exceptional drought: the highest category there is. Comparably, this area would cover the northeastern portion of the United States from Virginia and Maryland up to Maine.

Kansas and Oklahoma have faired similarly badly, but not to the same extent, with Kansas taking in losses estimated at $1.7 billion, and Oklahoma at $1.6 billion. In fact, as of September 13, it was estimated that 93% of Oklahoma was in extreme to exceptional drought.

((http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/drought-south-central-cost_2011-09-15))

Tropical Storm Lee Evacuations

Today in Wilkes-Barre, PA, emergency precautions are being made to try and help repair the already leaking Floodgates.  With an additional foot and a half of rain predicted before the night is out, 20,000 people have been evacuated from their homes. It is expected that the Susquehanna River, already well beyond stressing the flood gates protecting the town, will smash records tonight, cresting at around 40.8 feet between 2:00 and 3:00 AM. In the event the flood gates do give out, the entire town of Wilkes-Barre will be left completely under water.

Upstream, and along the Shenango River, which feeds into the Susquehanna, the only thing stopping it from doing the same thing to Binghamton, NY, is a flood wall built in the 1930's. There, 16,000 people have been evacuated to flood shelters as well. They'll be spending the night on cots, waiting for the waters to recede, and hoping that their 80-year-old protector can hold out. Rain poured down last night, raising the level of the river visibly by feet over the course of four to six hours, finally stopping at just before daybreak, also crushing records previously set June 28, 2006.

(Written from a program on the Weather Chanel, as well as http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/lee-remnants-strike-northeast_2011-09-07)